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US turns into 'oil nation' with record exports, 'eating' OPEC market share
美国晋升“石油大国”，出口创新高，“抢占”欧佩克市场份额
The U.S. exported a record amount of crude oil, topping a million barrels a day for a second week and filling the gap in world markets created by OPEC cutbacks.
美国原油出口创新高，连续两周产量高达1百万桶/日，填补了因欧佩克减产带来的全球市场空缺。
Shale and other U.S. producers sent 1.2 million barrels of crude oil onto world markets last week, up nearly 200,000 barrels a day from the week earlier and about 350,000 barrels above the four-week average, according to Energy Information Administration data. Until recently, the U.S. was exporting about 500,000 barrels a day.
美国能源信息署（EIA）最新数据显示，上周，美国页岩油及他石油产商每日向全球石油市场输送120万桶原油，较上周上涨近20万桶/日，比前四周平均出口量高出35万桶/日。直至最近，美国日出口量缩减至50万桶。
"OPEC's got a competitor. No doubt about it," said Kyle Cooper, a consultant with Ion Energy Group. "They certainly have to be concerned with U.S. oil producers eating into their market share."
Ion能源集团分析顾问Kyle Cooper称：“欧佩克确实遭遇劲敌。毫无疑问，他们现在不得不担心美国的原油产商将蚕食他们的市场份额。”
U.S. producers have also ramped up production to 9 million barrels a day last week, a level last seen in April 2016. The new production is increasing even as the U.S stockpiles continue to grow. According to EIA, oil supplies grew for a seventh week, adding a smaller than expected 564,000 barrels.
上周，美国原油产商提高产量至900万桶/日，上次产量高达这一水平还是在2016月4月。尽管美国原油库存一直上升，石油产量仍不断增加。EIA的数据显示，连续7周石油供应增长，略低于56.4万桶的预期增产量。
"OPEC is definitely looking over its shoulder at these rising numbers of exports, and it's undermining their efforts on a daily basis," said John Kilduff of Again Capital. "Some of it's going to Asia. China is one of the more unusual buyers in there. The shale guys are filling the gap of the very cuts that were put in place by the market."
Again Capital公司的John Kilduff表示：“欧佩克必定正在密切关注美国日益增长的出口量，因这些增量正一天天地将其降产努力付之一炬。其中一部分原油进入了亚洲市场，中国则是主要目的地之一。美国的页岩油产商正在填补欧佩克降产带来的市场空缺。”
The Oil Producing and Export Countries and non-OPEC producers, like Russia, agreed to cut about 1.8 million barrels a day from the world market in an effort to stabilize oil prices.
欧佩克及包括俄罗斯在内的多个非欧佩克产油国达成协议，实现国际市场供油日减产量180万桶，以稳定原油价格。
This is in contrast to a previous failed strategy to let the market set prices, which ended with oil collapsing into the $20s per barrel as producers flooded the world market. That earlier strategy was a direct response to the rise of U.S. shale production in the last decade.
此次降产不同于以往措施，欧佩克此前曾放任由市场调节油价，来直接应对过去十年美国页岩气产量增加，但最终因各产油国纷纷挤占国际市场，油价跌至20美元/桶以下而以失败告终。
Oil has been holding above $50 per barrel since OPEC reached the output deal in December. The market has been giving the producers high marks for compliance with the deal, with a recent Bloomberg report quoting OPEC sources saying they have 90 percent compliance and non-OPEC 70 percent. OPEC removed about 890,000 barrels a day from the world market in January.
自去年12月份欧佩克达成降产协议以来，油价便稳定在50美元/桶以上。市场反映各产油国降产履行良好，彭博社援引欧佩克数据发布报告称，欧佩克国家降产服从率达90%，非欧佩克国家则达到了70%。2017年1月，欧佩克全球石油供应减少89万桶/日。
Kilduff said he's skeptical of the compliance. "It looks like compliance is going to be well below 80 percent. Exports are on the upswing. We're seeing the tanker data," he said.
但是Kilduff对上述数据表示怀疑，他认为：“各产油国的减产率应该不到80%。就我们看到的油轮数据显示，石油出口正在增加。”
Cooper said some of OPEC's compliance was easy to achieve due to planned maintenance in January.
Copper称1月份一些OPEC国家会如期进入维护季，所以实现欧佩克减产率并非难事。
"If you're bullish, this should make you worry," Cooper said of the U.S. exports. "I think by late March, April, the market should be concerned about whether [OPEC] compliance is really compliance."
就美国石油出口而言，Cooper认为：“如果你看涨石油市场，上述分析会令你担心。我认为到3月末、4月时，市场就将担心欧佩克是否真正落实降产协议。”
Reuters reported this week that traders from North America, Britain and Brazil have tripled their shipments to Asia, taking advantage of the OPEC cuts. According to Thomson Reuters research, about 30 super tankers this month made their way to Asia from the Americas, the North Sea and Mediterranean.
路透本周报道，借欧佩克减产之机，北美、英国、巴西的贸易商将运往亚洲的原油增加了3倍。汤森路透研究表明，本月有30艘来自北美、北海和地中海的超大油轮开向亚洲。
"The pressure on prices is going to stay in place and ultimately break us out of this range to the downside," said Kilduff. "I'm not sure the Saudis don't throw it down … but history says the shale guys will cut back."
Kilduff认为：“油价一直饱受下行压力，最终会突破波动区间，步入下行路线。我不确定沙特是否会令油价下跌，但结合以往来看，页岩油价将会回升。”
U.S. shale has been more resilient than expecting, springing back in a big way after oil prices moved above $50 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate was trading in the $54 per barrel range Thursday. As U.S. exports increased last week, U.S. imports have also decreased, down to 7.3 million barrels a day, about 1 million barrels a day below the four-week average.
美国的页岩油比预期更具弹性，自油价上涨突破50美元/桶后，页岩油产量大幅回升。周四西德州中质原油的成交价在54美元/桶左右。随着上周美国出口量增加，进口量也有所下降，下降至730万桶/日，较近四周平均出口量约低100万桶/日。
"We are an oil nation now. We are a petroleum state," said Kilduff. "You have to see how far down our shale producers can drive down their costs. It's hard to see them competitive with the likes of Saudi Arabia, but they are competitive with some other countries."
Kilduff称：“现在我们已成为一个石油大国。美国页岩油生产商在降低成本方面具有无穷潜力。虽无法与沙特阿拉伯等石油巨头相抗衡，但与其他国家不相上下。”
The U.S. exports alone totaled more than the production of a number of OPEC countries, like Algeria, Libya, Gabon, Qatar and Ecuador, according to Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
能源咨询公司Lipow Oil Associates的总裁Andrew Lipow指出，美国的总出口量已经超过了一些欧佩克国家的石油产量，例如阿尔及利亚、利比亚、加蓬、卡塔尔和厄瓜多尔。
"Never underestimate U.S. engineering with an economic incentive. What they've done across the U.S. is phenomenal," Cooper said. U.S. drillers have harnessed new technologies and continue to lower costs and increase efficiency as they retrieve oil from areas once thought to be unproductive. "I really think it's one of the most significant technological advances we've seen."
在一些曾认为不产油的地区进行石油回收时，美国钻机商积极利用新技术、不断降低成本并提高效率。Cooper称：“永远不要低估经济效益驱动下美国工程业的发展，这一切在美国十分普遍。我认为这的确是最重要的一项技术进步。”
来源：Fuelfix网
微博：中国国际能源舆情研究中心
中国石油大学（北京）
中国国际能源舆情研究中心出品
